- The Business Rusch
Kristine Kathryn Rusch is one of the most versatile writers I know. She is also one of the most business-savvy. I respect her opinion enormously and so it was with mixed feelings of interest and dismay that I read her recent essay on the future of publishing. Kris argued that the ebook revolution is currently doing to publishing what the YouTube phenomenon did to television.
I have to say that this is not really what I wanted to hear. The notion that my stories that I have carefully crafted over many dozens if not hundreds of man-hours should be lumped together in the same business model as amusing cat videos and Fus Roh Dah compilations is, on the face of it, mildly insulting. However, the really annoying thing is that I think she’s right.
Anyone can publish an e-book, just as anyone can post a video to YouTube. As Kris writes, readers have an abundance of choice when deciding on what to read. We have moved from an era of relative scarcity of new books where the delivery is controlled by the publishing houses, to an era of abundance where a book can be written and uploaded almost immediately by anyone. Increacingly new authors are using e-publishing as a way of short-circuiting the turgid traditional publishing process. However, the ease of e-publishing is also one of its biggest structural defects. In this sea of self-published material of wildly varying quality, how does a good story stand out? How are good writers rewarded, and how do potential readers find what they are looking for?
In the old days, editors used to be the gatekeepers, the arbiters of quality. You knew, when buying a book or magazine, that you were gettig the best the industry had to offer (at least in the opinion of that editor). Now readers must rely on subtler cues… word of mouth, online reviews, previous experience with favourite authors. And although the old adage about not judging a book by its cover still stands, a decent cover does at least give potential readers a clue that here is a writer who takes his work seriously.
All this takes time. Success will be a slow burn as word of mouth propagates and new authors build up their catalogue to leverage new books off the success of previous ones.
We are only at the beginning of this new era and it would be foolhardy in the extreme to offer rash predictions about what this will do to the industry… so here goes.
I think Kris is right, the businness model is changing in fundamental ways. Taking the next step: we should look to other media that have been quicker to embrace the web and try and spot trends that might affect the publishing industry. In this writer’s opinion the future will bring more of the following:
- Traditional book manufacturing favoured a certain size of book. e-books can be any length and be priced accordingly. I believe this will lead to an increace in shorter stories, novellas and novelettes. These are better suited to quick turnarounds and changing audience expectations.
- Books in a series, or with returning characters will be even more prevalent than they are at the moment. Sequels are one way for readers to have some guarantee of what to expect.
- Combining the above two points we can imagine a future where e-books are more like TV series, with shorter episodes and continuing themes. And less like traditional novels (which could be considered like movies if we continue the analogy).
- We will see some lumping together of the currently independant publishing experience. Services such as Smashwords are already meeting places, watering holes in the vast untracked expanse of the internet. Soon there will be a measure of editorial discression. Distributers will offer premium services to authors with a proven track record, or to deserving new works. (Just like the editorial gatekeepeers of traditional publishing.) I’m not claiming to know how this will happen. But I do know that structures will appear. A heirarchy will develop.
How much (if any) of this will actually happen and when? Well, we will just have to wait and see.
