What does p(doom) mean?
Simply put, it’s the probability of doom, a percentage estimate of the chance of human extinction by AI. Ask an AI researcher what their p(doom) is, and the answer might surprise you.
Geoffrey Hinton (the Godfather of modern AI) says we have “a better than even” chance of avoiding extinction. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has a p(doom) of 10 to 25 percent which is close to Elon Musk’s estimate of 20 to 30 percent. The most prominent voices in AI development right now say humanity’s chances of surviving its creation are slightly worse than a game of Russian Roulette!
But how might that doom come about? If AI becomes a problem, won't we just turn it off?
Well, this short story (or rather collection of 4 short-shorts) first appeared in SNAFU: AI Insurrection last year and lays out a few possibilities why that might not be possible.
I try not to write stories with a “message” because they often become preachy and boring, but in this case I’m making an exception. Please read the story and ask yourself, “What’s my p(doom)?”
Simply put, it’s the probability of doom, a percentage estimate of the chance of human extinction by AI. Ask an AI researcher what their p(doom) is, and the answer might surprise you.
Geoffrey Hinton (the Godfather of modern AI) says we have “a better than even” chance of avoiding extinction. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has a p(doom) of 10 to 25 percent which is close to Elon Musk’s estimate of 20 to 30 percent. The most prominent voices in AI development right now say humanity’s chances of surviving its creation are slightly worse than a game of Russian Roulette!
But how might that doom come about? If AI becomes a problem, won't we just turn it off?
Well, this short story (or rather collection of 4 short-shorts) first appeared in SNAFU: AI Insurrection last year and lays out a few possibilities why that might not be possible.
I try not to write stories with a “message” because they often become preachy and boring, but in this case I’m making an exception. Please read the story and ask yourself, “What’s my p(doom)?”
Cover art by Ivan Zanchetta at Bookcoversart.com
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